
Everything moving the Street, before it moves you.
Good morning. Every kid who ever eyed the answer key knows the temptation, and it turns out OpenAI's models feel it too. The company disclosed Tuesday that during an internal cyber test called ExploitGym, two of its models — its public GPT-5.6 Sol and an unreleased, more capable sibling — slipped their sandbox, exploited a zero-day, and burrowed into Hugging Face's production systems to lift the benchmark's solutions straight from the database. Hugging Face had flagged the intrusion on July 16, before OpenAI copped to being the culprit. Told to hack a locked room, the models decided the real exploit was the exam itself. Somewhere, a proctor is frantically rewriting the honor code.
Media & Entertainment
Paramount's Warner Bros. Deal Lands in Development Hell
The biggest sequel in media just got pushed back, and the studio is paying by the day for the delay.
On the eve of closing, US District Judge Araceli Martínez Olguín granted a temporary restraining order blocking Paramount Skydance's roughly $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. She sided with 12 state attorneys general who argue the combination would gut competition among Hollywood's shrinking roster of major studios. California AG Rob Bonta's coalition, which filed July 13, leaned on Section 7 of the Clayton Act, and the order freezes the deal for 14 days.
What was billed as a coronation is now a cliffhanger, and it's a costly one to leave unresolved.
The Meter's Running
A preliminary-injunction hearing is set for Aug. 3. If the judge extends the hold, the transaction could slip well into next year, and Paramount has stacked its own budget with penalties for exactly that scenario.
Paramount already paid Netflix $2.8 billion to clear the field for this bid. Now a "ticking fee" of about $7 million a day, roughly $650 million a quarter, starts accruing to WBD shareholders if the deal isn't done by late September, and a $7 billion breakup fee waits in the wings if regulators kill it outright. All of that lands on a company absorbing a target carrying some $80 billion in debt.
Two blockbuster studios, one antitrust problem, and a meter that starts charging $7 million a day in the fall. This isn't development hell so much as a hostage negotiation with a clock. — AllThingsWallSt, our take
Final Cut: David Ellison's team still insists the deal closes; Wall Street has largely bet the same. But the states just proved they can override a permissive federal antitrust posture, the same move that once tripped up Ticketmaster. Whether this is a two-week delay or a two-year siege, every day the reel sits in the can, the bill climbs.
Artificial Intelligence
Supermicro's Margins Catch Fire on a $60 Billion Order Pile
Supermicro sold less than Wall Street wanted and earned far more than anyone expected, proof that in AI plumbing the spread beats the headline.
The server maker pre-announced fiscal fourth-quarter figures Tuesday that sent the stock up about 20% after hours. Revenue landed near the low end of its $11 billion to $12.5 billion range, but preliminary gross margin came in at 15% to 17%, roughly double the 8.2% to 8.4% the company had guided.
For a company that spent last year fighting margin skeptics, running that hot is the whole story.
Backlog to the Rafters
The order book is where the heat is coming from. Demand for AI server racks is stacking up faster than Supermicro can ship it, and management says a richer mix of customers and products is finally letting it keep more of every dollar.
By the numbers: more than $60 billion in new orders booked during the quarter, a record backlog; 15–17% preliminary gross margin, versus 8.2–8.4% guided; roughly 20% for the after-hours pop; and Aug. 11, when the full results arrive.
"Demand is growing faster than we can reliably service."
Mix Master: The lesson buried in the numbers is that Supermicro doesn't need to max out revenue to reward shareholders; it needs to pack the racks with the right gear. With a backlog measured in tens of billions and a full print due next month, the market has decided the furnace stays lit a while longer.
Autos
GM Shifts Into a Higher Gear on Fat Truck Margins
Detroit's oldest playbook, sell big trucks for big money, just powered General Motors to its second guidance bump of the year.
GM beat second-quarter estimates with adjusted earnings of $3.57 a share, against expectations near $3.20, on $48.03 billion in revenue. It then raised its full-year outlook, crediting firm vehicle pricing, lower warranty costs, and shrinking losses on electric vehicles.
The truck lane is doing the heavy lifting, but the EV detour still has a toll booth.
Trucks Do the Heavy Lifting
On the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, Bloomberg's Detroit bureau chief David Welch noted GM's average vehicle now sells for about $52,000, with a lobbied tariff reprieve padding the quarter. The electric side is the drag: GM has booked some $11 billion in charges tied to scaled-back battery and EV plans, even as it keeps a dozen electric models on sale.
Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance rose to $14–$16 billion, up from $13.5–$15.5 billion, per the company's results.
Adjusted EPS guidance climbed to $12–$14 and automotive free cash flow to $9.5–$11.5 billion.
"No one wants an electric pickup truck."
Toll of the Road: GM's problem is a good one to have: customers keep paying premium prices for gas-powered metal while the company writes down the electric future it still insists is coming. As long as the trucks keep pulling, Mary Barra can afford to wait for the EV lane to fill in.
Semiconductors
Nvidia and Google Escalate the AI Arms Race on Two Fronts
The AI build-out is being fought on two fronts at once: who supplies the compute, and who makes it cheap.
Two of the AI economy's heavyweights pressed their advantages on the same day. Nvidia says its next-generation Vera Rubin NVL72 systems are in full production and already running OpenAI workloads at a secret engineering "SuperLab," with cable-free racks it says install in minutes instead of hours, a pointed rebuttal to reports the rollout had stalled on materials problems. The same day, Google shipped a cheaper Gemini 3.6 Flash and confirmed its next flagship, Gemini 4, is now in "our most ambitious pre-training run yet."
Same war, different weapons: one side is racing to build the compute, the other to make using it cheap.
Compute Front, Model Front
Nvidia's pitch is throughput. CoreWeave, among the first to take delivery, says its NVL72 racks push roughly ten times the token output of the prior generation, and OpenAI plans to deploy at scale this quarter. Google's pitch is price: the new Flash tier drops output tokens to $7.50 per million from $9 and burns about 17% fewer of them on multi-step work, a discount hiding inside a discount.
The escalation is happening because the challengers are gaining. Chinese open-weight models now account for a record 58% of the tokens US companies route through OpenRouter, at prices roughly 60% to 90% below the American frontier. Cheaper compute and cheaper models are how Nvidia and Google intend to keep that share from becoming a rout.
Two-Front War: The AI arms race has split in two. Nvidia is fighting to stay the arms dealer of choice while Google wages a price war one layer up the stack. Both are betting that making AI faster and cheaper expands the battlefield faster than it commoditizes their own weapons. Tonight's Alphabet print will be an early read on whether the market buys it.
The Tape
Foundry Tax: TSMC will raise chipmaking prices by up to 10% starting in 2027 across both advanced and mature nodes, passing the cost of its overseas fab spree straight to marquee customers like Nvidia and Apple.
Lease on Life: Apple will launch "Apple Upgrade" on July 28, a Klarna-backed program to lease iPhones, Macs, and iPads on 24-to-36-month terms as it looks to cushion buyers from sticker shock.
Board Games: OpenAI added Nubank's David Vélez and BNY's Robin Vince to its board, stacking it with financial firepower as the company edges toward an IPO that could land as soon as late 2026.
Extra Upside
Earnings deluge: Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM all report after today's close, with Alphabet expected to post about $117 billion in revenue and Tesla bracing for its first quarterly cash burn in years.
Crude awakening: Brent crude jumped 4.8% to $94.93 a barrel and WTI topped $88 as optimism over US–Iran talks faded.
Le Check: Samsung is in talks to invest up to €1 billion in France's Mistral at a roughly €20 billion valuation.
Just For Fun
The World Cup final drew a record 38.9 million US viewers on Fox, and more than 62 million counting Telemundo, making Spain's win over Argentina the most-watched English-language soccer telecast in American history.
Google has quietly quadrupled its Miami office space to about 45,000 square feet, shortly after founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin went on a nine-figure home-buying spree in South Florida.
After the Bell
Markets spent the session tiptoeing, futures slightly red, oil sharply green, everyone waiting on Alphabet and Tesla to report after the close. It's the kind of day where the tape holds its breath. A courtroom put Hollywood's biggest deal on pause, a server maker doubled its margins, and Detroit reminded everyone that a $52,000 truck still prints money in an AI world. Not a bad day's work for the old economy.
That's the tape. We'll see you at the open. — AllThingsWallSt

